Well, without knowing a great deal about it, an invest is an area of disturbed weather that bears watching and tracking as it could develop into a tropical wave, depression, storm or even a hurricane. The professional weather guessers begin tracking these things over near the Azores in the Eastern Atlantic, following them on until they eventually dissipate somewhere far away.
This one, Invest 93L, started off heading west and never deviated. Oh sure, the modelling (they run four or five different modelling tools to project where it might go, kept indicating that it would either turn north or south, but 93L was stubborn enough to just keep heading west.
By that I mean, pretty much toward Belize. In this case, it is beginning to look like it will actually impact Honduras more than Belize, but you know what I mean. The barrel of the gun looks like it's aimed right at us even when it might miss by a smidge.
The most current information on 93L, paraphrased from the National Hurricane Center:
Heavy rains will spread over Northern Honduras and Northeast Nicaragua tonight. 93L will slow to 5 - 10 mph by Friday, so it could become a major event for Honduras.
By the time 93L reaches Belize, probably on Friday night or Saturday, we could see rainfall in the area of 4 - 8 inches.
The Weather Underground has a nice series of diagrams showing the latest modelling tracks and other stuff about 93L at (http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at201193_model.html).
So, in anticipation of 93L's arrival, perhaps tomorrow afternoon or so, we took the opportunity to train ourselves and see just what it took to slide the awning back. Since it doesn't look like we're going to be faced with hurricane force winds, we decided to just tie it off on the leeward stanchion.
Rolled-Up Awning |
From Another View |
And, just in case you're wondering, the deck is way hotter with no awning. We had forgotten just how hot that could become and how naked and exposed the deck seems. I can't wait until we run the awning back out.
Just in case you're interested, I copied all the tropical storm and hurricane information for Belize from the Weather Underground maps. Look under Hurricane Archive on the right-hand side (http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/). When you look at the big picture, over time, it sure looks like a lot of activity. Still, the locals think Belize is lucky when it comes to hurricanes.So, it's all in your perspective.
YEAR | STORMS | ||
1864 | Hurricane #3 | ||
1866 | Hurricane #2 | ||
1870 | Hurricane #11 | ||
1874 | Hurricane #6 | ||
1892 | Hurricane #7 | ||
1893 | Hurricane #2 | ||
1898 | Windward Islands Hurricane, TS-6 | ||
1906 | Hurricane #8 | ||
1916 | Hurricane #14 | ||
1917 | TS-1 | ||
1918 | Hurricane #1 | ||
1920 | Hurricane #2 | ||
1921 | Hurricane #1 | ||
1922 | TS-1 | ||
1924 | TS-1 | ||
1926 | TS-9 | ||
1927 | TS-6 | ||
1931 | Belize Hurricane, TS-2, TS-3, TS-4 | ||
1932 | TS-8, San Ciprian Hurricane | ||
1934 | Central American Hurricane | ||
1936 | Hurricane #8, Hurricane #10 | ||
1938 | TS-5 | ||
1939 | TS-1 | ||
1940 | TS-6 | ||
1941 | Hurricane #4 | ||
1942 | Hurricane #2, TS-4 | ||
1943 | TS-10 | ||
1944 | TS-2 | ||
1945 | Hurricane #1, Hurricane #10 | ||
1946 | Hurricane #5 | ||
1952 | TS-1 | ||
1954 | TS-Gilda | ||
1955 | Hurricane Janet | ||
1956 | Hurricane Flossy | ||
1960 | Hurricane Abby | ||
1961 | Hurricane Hattie, Hurricane Carla | ||
1964 | Hurricane Isbell | ||
1969 | Hurricane Laurie | ||
1971 | Hurricane Kara, TS-Chloe | ||
1974 | Hurricane Fifi, Hurricane Carmen | ||
1977 | TS-Frieda | ||
1978 | Hurricane Greta | ||
1980 | TS-Hermione | ||
1990 | Hurricane Diana | ||
1993 | Hurricane Gert | ||
1995 | Hurricane Opal | ||
1996 | TS-Kyle | ||
1999 | TS-Katrina | ||
2000 | Hurricane Keith | ||
2001 | Hurricane Iris, TS-Jerry | ||
2007 | TS-Barry, Hurricane Felix, Hurricane Dean | ||
2008 | TS-Arthur | ||
2010 | TS-Alex, TS-Karl | ||
2011 | ?? |
3 comments:
Looks from here that TS Harvey (was invest 93?) is going to hit south of you, near Placencia. Hope it stays just a Tropical Storm.
I knew that if you could get the awning furled easily that you would be missed... that shows Murphy is alive and well..
Julian
This morning its just a wonderful soft rain, perfect for all of the plants. Keeping fingers crossed.
Nice soft rain, felt nice but chickened out on walkies. We turned around. Then it got sunny for a while. Can't second-guess the weather too much.
Yesterday, unfurled the awning in time for happy hour. This morning re-furled it for Harvey (nee Invest 93L) and cancelled the Men's Group meeting that would have happened here. Hopefully not second-guessing myself again.
Although, with the potential to be a Cat 1 on landfall. If furling it cancelled that, hey - we won!
Cheers,
Dave
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